Palin has a Reverend Wright problem — two, in fact: Mike Rose and David Pepper are American Talibaners through and through. Where some people see The Handmaid’s Tale as a dystopian warning, these assholes see it as a blueprint.
The McCain camp has announced that it took $4 million in donations “within a day or so of announcing” Palin as the VP choice in Ohio, where there were rumors that McCain was having difficulties filling the 10,000 seat stadium. Yesterday in St. Louis, Missouri — according to Politico’s Johnathan Martin, who’s been assigned to the GOP beat — that was no longer an issue:
17,000+ today for the McCain-Palin rally outside of St. Louis, according to a Secret Service magnetometer count provided by the campaign.
As one veteran of Missouri politics said, that’s the sort of crowd usually seen in October for a president — not in August for a candidate.
It’s also a record-best for McCain.
Yes, yes, it’s just about a routine crowd for Obama. But there is perhaps no better indicator of how Palin is helping McCain close the enthusiasm gap…
Anglachel believes that Palin will solidify McCain’s appeal to certain constituencies, but not enough to win the White House. However:
The new voters Palin is bringing in are on the Republican side, evangelical voters who were uninspired by or distrustful of McCain but who will eagerly turn out for Palin. The argument about McCain’s poor health (which I think is both bogus and a bad, bad argument for Dems to make) is actually a plus for them, because it offers the prospect of one of their own as President. She will probably bring out moderate Republican women who would have gone for Hillary, don’t really like McCain, and would probably have sat out this election round…
Where I anticipate her being a “game changer” will be in state and local races, where a slight increase in turnout can change results. When some races and ballot measures are decided by a few hundred votes, getting out twenty more voters here, eight more voters there will pay off. I don’t think that this was one of McCain’s considerations when he chose her, but it is most certainly a consideration of the state party officials who are dancing a gleeful jig. It may endanger governerships, state legislatures and some House races Dems were hoping to pick up. For example, Washington State will have a rematch of Dem. Gregoire and Rep. Rossi for governor. The last time, Gregoire won by a razor thin margin after multiple recounts that are not considered valid by the losing side. In news reports I have read, Rossi is very happy with the choice of Palin to help him turn out his own cultural conservative base (he is a truly bat-shit insane culture warrior who cleans up nice) and expects another close battle with Gregoire – which he will win this time. Washington state is far more conservative than people realize, and adding Palin may actually turn Washington red because of the makeup of the Republican Party. This may be repeated in red and purple states in specific races where the race is close.
The next consideration is for ballot measures and initiatives, such as the anti-Affirmative Action measures in Colorado and Missouri (among other places) and the anti-gay marriage state constitutional amendment in California. Palin now adds an appealing and energetic face to put on the GOTV efforts on the Republican side.
David Broder — gods help me for quoting and linking to him but he actually has some decent information, for once — quotes an anonymous Bush Juntist who believes Palin has one edge against Biden. Broder then follows-up with an intelligent thought that might actually be his own:
A Bush White House operative said that he can see Palin stumping repeatedly through Midwest battleground states, pitting her own blue-collar background against the similar family story of Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential hopeful.
“She can talk to those worried workers and their families in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania as well as he can,” he said. “She is really one of them.”
That may be true. But Biden combines his working-class background with decades of experience in foreign policy — a base of knowledge Palin cannot hope to match no matter how hard she crams for their Oct. 2 debate. Her credibility will be on the line that night in St. Louis, as will Biden’s self-discipline. He cannot afford to condescend. She will have to know her facts.